Lynchpin falls out of paradigm
No explanation yet from Dr Fauci, and we think we know why
Interesting JAMA story moving on the UPI ticker just now: HIV measurement is questioned. Seems viral load has little to do with CD4 loss in untreated HIV + patients.
Dr. Benigno RodrÃguez of Case Western Reserve University and colleagues conducted a study to estimate the extent to which presenting blood levels of HIV can account for the rate at which CD4 cells are depleted among an untreated HIV-infected population of patients.
The researchers found only a small proportion of the rate at which CD4 cells are lost could be explained by plasma HIV RNA level, suggesting more than 90 percent of the determinants of CD4 cell decline are not reflected in the amount of virus in blood.
So don’t hurry to take HAART just because your HIV count is high. Is that right?
If so, where does that leave the paradigm and Anthony Fauci’s assurance that HIV causes depletion of CD4 cells, directly, indirectly and some other mysterious way as yet undefined but characterised by the paradigm defense team’s head man, Zvi Grossman, as a “conundrum”.
Seems we don’t even have to work out what the conundrum is. HIV doesn’t correlate with CD4 loss, period. Not in untreated patients. Not before HAART messes with your constitution.
Ah well, it’s late, maybe we got it all wrong. But looks to us as if the paradigm is failing on every front. Viral load doesn’t govern CD4 loss. That’s a problem to explain, unless you are a dissenter, ie someone with a few working brain cells left in this field.
Is it time for Gallo et al to pack for Rio? He should buy his ticket, the way things are crumbling.
Still, since Fauci presumably has been forewarned, he probably has an answer for us tomorrow, and Larry will let us know at the Times.
UPDATE: here is an AMA rundown of the paper:
“These findings represent a major departure from the notion that plasma HIV RNA level is a reliable predictor of rate of CD4 cell loss in HIV infection and challenge the concept that the magnitude of viral replication (at least as reflected by plasma levels) is the main determinant of the speed of CD4 cell loss at the individual level. The clinical implications are that in the majority of cases, an individual patient’s plasma HIV RNA level at the time of presentation for clinical care cannot predict, to a significant extent, the rate of CD4 cell decline that he or she will experience over the subsequent years and is therefore of limited clinical value in shaping the decision to initiate antiretroviral therapy,†the researchers write.
(JAMA. 2006;296:1498-1506.)….
“The second and potentially more exciting implication of the findings of Rodriguez et al is that future improvements in the treatment of HIV infection and AIDS may result from improved understanding of the 90 percent of CD4 cell depletion that remains enigmatic,†they write. “A better understanding of the immunologic and genetic factors that drive HIV-associated CD4 cell loss may translate to novel therapeutic approaches that could favorably shift the pathogen-host balance.
So 90 per cent of CD 4 depletion is not driven by HIV? But… but… Dr. Fauci, come to our rescue here. We were under the impression that HIV caused AIDS by depleting CD4 cells. You told the audience that when you appeared in New York with Mathilde Krim and Larry Kramer at the New School to celebrate “AIDS after 25 Years”. Help us here.
Did Dr Fauci censor himself on HIV∫AIDS flaws?
Why was this paper not flagged at NIAID before it could be published? The answer to that question also seems enigmatic. Maybe it was because Dr Fauci thought there might be something in our previous nomination on his behalf for recognition from Stockholm (Dr Fauci finds solution to AIDS - it’s HIV; NAR nominates him for Nobel) on the grounds that he had discovered that HIV actually increased CD4+8 proliferation, and therefore was an antidote to itself.
Readers may note that at the bottom of that post is a Comment by Robert Houston which points out that Dr Fauci himself in a review of HIV∫AIDS quoted from a paper he himself forwarded to the National Academy of Sciences that showed that a huge rise in HIV load of 5,560% resulted in a negligible change in CD4 count of -6%, at the same time as boosting CD8 count 20%.
Is it possible that Dr Fauci is aware of the fact that HIV load has no great influence on CD4 count, and even wrote about it for the information of the medical community, on the basis of a paper he forwarded to the National Academy, and somehow forgot to tell government officials, health workers and the public?
Surely it would be too cynical to imagine that the director of NIAID would censor himself in this way, after censoring the media for twenty two years?
Surely a public servant of the well paid and important kind that Dr Fauci is would never withhold information from members of the public who pay his salary who might then be misled into taking drugs with horrendous side effects for no good reason?
Surely a public servant of the stature of Dr Fauci would not freely acknowledge a flaw in the paradigm which has brought so much funding to his institution among colleagues, and yet somehow neglect to tell the public?
If he did, then it behooves us to wonder just how flawed does Dr Fauci think the HIV∫AIDS paradigm really is. Are there other flaws which he has quietly recognized in chats and talks to his peers in the medical policy fraternity, but has omitted to acknowledge in public?
It already seems clear that his answer to Robert Houston at the “AIDS after 25 Years” panel on how HIV killed CD4 cells was misleading. He repeated the same old claims that there was direct killing and indirect killing which have not only been revealed as specious by mainstream papers which he must have read himself, but he knew himself from his own review and paper that HIV load has very little to do with CD4 count changes.
So today’s revelation in JAMA is nothing new to him, and we don’t really expect him to help us to understand it. Dr Fauci’s policy on informing the public seems to be this: however many reasons there are to doubt that HIV is “the virus that causes AIDS”, it is important not to undermine public confidence by acknowledging them in public.
But it is fine to talk and write about them among colleagues.
We wonder what all the haplessly gullible gays now staggering about with wrecked and ugly bodies, and the ghosts of their dead, will have to say about it when they finally come to their senses?
Maybe they will take up Larry Kramer on his suggestion for a latter day Nuremburg Trial, and put Dr Anthony Fauci in the dock.
AMA rundown:
Libraries
Medical News
Keywords
HIV, CD4 CELLS, IMMUNE RESPONSE
Contact Information
Available for logged-in reporters only
Description
Preliminary research indicates that the initial HIV RNA level in untreated HIV-infected patients appears to have little value in predicting the rate of CD4 cell count decrease, potentially limiting its clinical value concerning the decision of when to begin antiretroviral therapy for an individual, according to a study in the September 27 issue of JAMA.
Newswise — Preliminary research indicates that the initial HIV RNA level in untreated HIV-infected patients appears to have little value in predicting the rate of CD4 cell count decrease, potentially limiting its clinical value concerning the decision of when to begin antiretroviral therapy for an individual, according to a study in the September 27 issue of JAMA.
Depletion of CD4 cells is a characteristic of progressive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease and a powerful predictor of the short-term risk of progression to AIDS, according to background information in the article. Blood levels of HIV are also thought to predict HIV disease progression risk. In addition to their role as predictors of the clinical outcomes of HIV infection, CD4 cell count and plasma HIV RNA level are commonly used as markers of the success of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Until this study was completed, however, the degree to which blood levels of HIV could predict the rate of CD4 cell loss in HIV-infected individuals with similar demographic characteristics to those seen in clinical practice was unclear.
To address this question, Benigno RodrÃguez, M.D., of Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, and colleagues conducted a study to estimate the extent to which presenting blood levels of HIV can account for or “explain†the rate at which CD4 cells are depleted among an untreated HIV-infected population of patients including women and ethnic minorities. The study included repeated analyses of 2 multicenter groups, with observations beginning in May 1984 and ending in August 2004. Analyses were conducted between August 2004 and March 2006. The participants included antiretroviral treatment–naïve, chronically HIV-infected persons (n = 1,289 and n = 1,512 for each of the 2 groups) who were untreated during the observation period (6 months or greater) and with at least 1 HIV RNA level and 2 CD4 cell counts available. Approximately 35 percent were nonwhite, and 35 percent had risk factors other than male-to-male sexual contact.
The researchers found that only a small proportion of the rate at which CD4 cells are lost (only 4 percent - 6 percent) in a given individual patient could be explained by presenting plasma HIV RNA level, suggesting that in chronic untreated HIV infection over 90 percent of the determinants of CD4 cell decline are not reflected in the amount of virus in blood at the time of initial medical evaluation.
“Our findings confirm previous observations that the magnitude of HIV viremia [the presence of a virus in the blood stream], as defined by broad categories of presenting HIV RNA level, is associated with the rate of CD4 cell loss and extend this observation to patient populations comprising both men and women. Despite this association, however, only a small proportion of the interindividual variability in the rate of CD4 cell decline can be explained by plasma HIV RNA level, even after accounting for the effect of measurement error,†the authors write.
“These findings represent a major departure from the notion that plasma HIV RNA level is a reliable predictor of rate of CD4 cell loss in HIV infection and challenge the concept that the magnitude of viral replication (at least as reflected by plasma levels) is the main determinant of the speed of CD4 cell loss at the individual level. The clinical implications are that in the majority of cases, an individual patient’s plasma HIV RNA level at the time of presentation for clinical care cannot predict, to a significant extent, the rate of CD4 cell decline that he or she will experience over the subsequent years and is therefore of limited clinical value in shaping the decision to initiate antiretroviral therapy,†the researchers write.
(JAMA. 2006;296:1498-1506. Available pre-embargo to the media at http://www.jamamedia.org.)
“The second and potentially more exciting implication of the findings of Rodriguez et al is that future improvements in the treatment of HIV infection and AIDS may result from improved understanding of the 90 percent of CD4 cell depletion that remains enigmatic,†they write. “A better understanding of the immunologic and genetic factors that drive HIV-associated CD4 cell loss may translate to novel therapeutic approaches that could favorably shift the pathogen-host balance.
Editor’s Note: This work was supported in part by the Case Western Reserve University Center for AIDS Research and NIH grants. Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, financial disclosures, funding and support, etc.
Editorial: Explaining, Predicting, and Treating HIV-Associated CD4 Loss - After 25 Years Still a Puzzle
In an accompanying editorial, W. Keith Henry, M.D., of the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis; Pablo Tebas, M.D., of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia; and H. Clifford Lane, M.D., of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, Md., discuss the findings concerning HIV RNA levels and CD4 cell loss.
“The study by Rodriguez et al may have several important clinical implications. The first and more straightforward is that baseline measurements of viral load alone should have less of a role in driving decisions on when to start antiretroviral therapy for an individual patient; these initial viral load levels cannot predict how rapidly the disease will progress. … The seemingly useful practice of combining a CD4 cell count and plasma HIV RNA levels to assess an individual patient’s prognosis for AIDS progression or response to highly active antiretroviral therapy needs reexamination.â€
“The second and potentially more exciting implication of the findings of Rodriguez et al is that future improvements in the treatment of HIV infection and AIDS may result from improved understanding of the 90 percent of CD4 cell depletion that remains enigmatic,†they write. “A better understanding of the immunologic and genetic factors that drive HIV-associated CD4 cell loss may translate to novel therapeutic approaches that could favorably shift the pathogen-host balance. … Discovering and developing therapies that target key nonviral factors has the potential over the decades ahead to build on the success of antiretroviral therapy and expand access to sustainable effective therapy.â€
(JAMA. 2006;296:1523-1525. Available pre-embargo to the media at http://www.jamamedia.org.)
Editor’s Note: Please see the editorial for financial disclosures, funding and support, etc.
HIV measurement is questioned
CLEVELAND`, Ohio, Sept. 26 (UPI) — Preliminary U.S. research indicates the HIV RNA level in untreated HIV-infected patients has little value in predicting the rate of CD4 cell count decrease.
Researchers say that potentially limits HIV RNA’s clinical value concerning the decision of when to begin antiretroviral therapy.
Until the new study was completed, the degree to which HIV blood levels could predict the rate of CD4 cell loss was unclear.
To address the question, Dr. Benigno RodrÃguez of Case Western Reserve University and colleagues conducted a study to estimate the extent to which presenting blood levels of HIV can account for the rate at which CD4 cells are depleted among an untreated HIV-infected population of patients.
The researchers found only a small proportion of the rate at which CD4 cells are lost could be explained by plasma HIV RNA level, suggesting more than 90 percent of the determinants of CD4 cell decline are not reflected in the amount of virus in blood.
The research appears in the current issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association.
UPDATE: Nick Bennett Replies on his site Viral load paradigm shift? Not really.
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Viral load paradigm shift? Not really.
An interesting study came out recently (I managed to get a copy of the article from one of the authors) on the predictive value of viral load. It’s well known (at least among those who bother to read and understand the literature) that those people with higher viral loads tend to progress faster, as was shown by John Mellors back in the mid 1990s using the large Multicenter AIDS cohort study (MACS).
This study took things one step further. They replicated the original findings of Mellors by showing again that viral load roughly predicted how fast AIDS occurred in another large cohort composed of people from 3 seperate study sites. For example, in this new paper people with viral loads less than 500 had an average loss of CD4 cells of 20 per year whereas those with viral loads over 40,000 had an average loss of 78 a year (with a smooth change for values inbetween). Basically this data proved that viral load was a reasonable predictor of rate of progression! They compared this analysis with the original MACS cohort and it looks practically identical!
But then they tried to look at the individual rate of progression of each member of the cohort. Unsurprisingly they found that the rough-and-ready estimates of progression rate within a subgroup varied from one individual to another. When they ran complex statistical analysis on the effects of viral load on THIS data they found that only about 5-6% of the inter-individual variation can be explained by the initial viral load. In another words, while viral load predicts that you WILL lose CD4 count, and you can give an AVERAGE loss of CD4 cells per year based on that count, you can’t say for sure what the ACTUAL loss will be for any one person very accurately.
Well, duh. Nothing amazing there.
Now, what’s sad about this whole thing is that is appears as if the dissident websites have jumped all over the mass-media coverage of this without bothering to read the paper. They are assuming that this somehow negates the usefullness of viral load measurements. Ironically if a paper showing that viral load predicted 100% of the CD4 T cell loss (an impossible thing) relied on complex statistical analysis I’m sure they wouldn’t accept it with anything like the same level of naivity!
This is nothing new - we’ve known for years that various other factors can play into AIDS progression, from nutritional status to immune makeup, depression, and viral genetics. We’ve known for years that overall T cell losses include uninfected as well as infected cells, that immune hyperactivation leads to apoptosis but a lack of renewal - both things that are only indirectly due to HIV infection, but not direct cell killing. What we haven’t done before is put a number on anything - to say roughly HOW much influence these things can have on an individual level.
It should also be noted that this should lay to rest any idea that mainstream science is simply laying back and accepting the current paradigm without question. If that were the case, why was this large, comprehensive, complex study performed? Is it because that when dissidents say that scientists ARE sitting back on the current paradigm they are…*gasp*…lying??! And, SHOCK HORROR, this was supported by an NIH grant, the very same NIH that the dissidents are trying to claim is horribly corrupt and under the thumb of pharmaceutical sponsors!
Ahh, is that the sound of cherries being picked?
Anyhow, I will quote from the paper:
“Our findings confirm previous observations that the magnitude of HIV viremia, as defined by broad categories of presenting HIV RNA level, is associated with the rate of CD4 cell loss and
extend this observation to patient populations comprising both men and women.”
In other words, viral load predicts rate of progression to AIDS.
If the dissidents are trying to twist this paper to say anything else, they are managing a feat of astonishing deception. Is there more to the story? Of course! No-one, except the dissidents, is saying anything else. They also state that “In humans, the predictive value of immune activation level on HIV disease course, independent of plasma HIV RNA levels, can be demonstrated even when measured during early infection”, which goes back to what I said above.
And I refer the reader to my older post on HIV pathogenesis.
It should also be mentioned that viral load isn’t used as a clinical criteria for starting treatment unless the load is very high and the CD4 counts are equivocal. Viral load is almost exclusively used for monitoring response to therapy on the individual level, so inter-individual variability isn’t an issue anyway.
This result is very important in that it highlights the need to investigate other factors important in triggering or controlling rate of progression to AIDS, but it won’t really change the current paradigm in terms of understanding AIDS pathogenesis, nor will it change current treatment guidelines, because neither depends on the idea that HIV viral load is the be-all and end-all of AIDS.
Except of course, that it is in the minds of the dissidents.
Which is (one reason) why they’re wrong.
posted by Bennett at 11:18 PM
0 Comments:
Comment: Bravo, Bennett, for defending the paradigm against what looked like a nasty finding judging from the first reports. Now we too have the actual paper in hand, we can see that the point Dr Bennett makes is perfectly correct, this was a paper dealing with variations between individual experiences, not with the overall correlation between the two measures of HIV and CD4 for all the patients in the study. Naturally there can be many other factors accounting for variations in individual experience, as there are many reasons for contracting AIDS symptoms, and reasons for vulnerability.
But he entirely overlooks the thrust of the paper, which demonstrates that the authors are unable to discern what those causes of variation might be. They explored the possibilities that sex, risk factor and/or presenting HIV RNA stratum might be the answer and found nothing that could predict the rate of CD4 loss. In fact, Bennett’s reassurance that everything is fine in HIV∫AIDS la la land is merely the same old reflex denial of the big black headline over the AMA comment by W. Keith Henry, which is that “Explaining, Predicting and Treating HIV-Associated CD4 Cell Loss (is) After 25 Years Still a Puzzle.
Henry et al note that the report “challenges the notion that, at the individual level, a limited number of HIV measurements over a short period of time provide meaningful prognostic information regarding the rate of CD4 cell decline and by extension the risk of opportunistic infections.” Of course, if the medical fraternity would take off their NIAID provided glasses with “HIV is behind everything” etched onto them they would have known this in the first place. If they bothered to read their own literature (or this blog) or even think clearly they would know that it is just as likely that CD4 counts are lower at rest and higher when activated, than vice versa, as Dr Fauci has recently touched on in his extensive review. Moreover, the level of active virus in the blood of patients without AIDS symptoms in the long “latent period” is utterly negligible. It is hard to conceive it has anything at all to do with changes in CD4 count, compared with myriad other influences on the immune system.
The result of the study is in fact utterly predictable, and the only surprise it holds is for those who imagine that the simple minded mechanism of HIV causing AIDS imagined in the first place over two decades ago - HIV killing CD4 cells dirctly - is still part of the paradigm. This includes Dr Fauci, it appears, who doesn’t read his own medical literature according to his public statement at the New School on the ways HIV kills CD4 cells, which repeated this now outmoded idea, as well as the cell suicide theory of “indirect killing”, when both are rejected by his top theoretical thinker Zvi Grossman, who has retreated to the conclusion that how it all happens is a “conundrum”.
What is really the study’s only novel usefulness is its demonstration yet again that no one has any idea how HIV can possibly govern the loss of CD4 cells that is held to be cause of AIDS, and that the obvious alternative - that HIV is merely an opportunistic infection, and rather than governing CD4 count, it is CD4 count that governs the rise and fall of HIV viral load, as CD4 numbers are affected by other factors - the poisons and other assaults that may bring on AIDS symptoms.
It puts yet another nail in the coffin of a paradigm that has never been able to demonstrate its central premise.