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	<title>Comments on: Massive Washington drug trial meet is unanimous &#8211; HIV, nevirapine OK, Harper&#8217;s not</title>
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	<link>http://www.scienceguardian.com/blog/massive-washington-drug-trial-meet-is-unanimous-hiv-nevirapine-ok-harpers-not.htm</link>
	<description>Reviewing scientific paradigms and other general beliefs in the light of the scientific and professional literature</description>
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		<title>By: Jensen</title>
		<link>http://www.scienceguardian.com/blog/massive-washington-drug-trial-meet-is-unanimous-hiv-nevirapine-ok-harpers-not.htm/comment-page-1#comment-130</link>
		<dc:creator>Jensen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Mar 2006 11:46:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://paradigmoverthrow.com/blog/?p=190#comment-130</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t know if this is too late for an answer, but I was extremely intrigued by the proposed trial to show if Nevirapine would lessen the rate of sexual HIV transmissions in heterosexuals.     

For the suggested number of &#039;successful transmissions&#039; (as Truthseeker puts it, no doubt caught up in the general atmosphere of trial optimism) in 4000 people over 5 years to be a reliable measure, it seems to me the researchers would have to make sure:

1. That those people don&#039;t engage in any other risk behaviour during those 5 years (doable but rather boring)

2. That they engage only in &#039;heterosexual forms&#039; of sex since 4000 sodomists presumably would be at greater risk than 4000 missionaries (doable but rather boring)           

3. That they average a prescribed number of couplings in those 5 years (doable but rather boring)

4. In case this is a couple study as the description suggests, that they remain faithful both in the sense that they are not allowed to break up, or at least required to replace the old with a new discordant partner, and in the sense that they cannot engage in promiscuous behaviour, since it would heighten the risk of contracting diseases like gonorrhea, which are said to facilitate the transmission of HIV. (doable but rather boring)           

5. That a specified number of them (corresponding to the control group) consent to having regular sex with an HIV infected person. (extremely risky, not romantic - legal?)

6.That all consent to being experimented upon with a toxic drug. (extremely risky)


My question is this: Where will the researchers ever find thousands of test subjects with such a peculiar mix of conventional virtues and appetite for risky behaviour?
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t know if this is too late for an answer, but I was extremely intrigued by the proposed trial to show if Nevirapine would lessen the rate of sexual HIV transmissions in heterosexuals.     </p>
<p>For the suggested number of &#8217;successful transmissions&#8217; (as Truthseeker puts it, no doubt caught up in the general atmosphere of trial optimism) in 4000 people over 5 years to be a reliable measure, it seems to me the researchers would have to make sure:</p>
<p>1. That those people don&#8217;t engage in any other risk behaviour during those 5 years (doable but rather boring)</p>
<p>2. That they engage only in &#8216;heterosexual forms&#8217; of sex since 4000 sodomists presumably would be at greater risk than 4000 missionaries (doable but rather boring)           </p>
<p>3. That they average a prescribed number of couplings in those 5 years (doable but rather boring)</p>
<p>4. In case this is a couple study as the description suggests, that they remain faithful both in the sense that they are not allowed to break up, or at least required to replace the old with a new discordant partner, and in the sense that they cannot engage in promiscuous behaviour, since it would heighten the risk of contracting diseases like gonorrhea, which are said to facilitate the transmission of HIV. (doable but rather boring)           </p>
<p>5. That a specified number of them (corresponding to the control group) consent to having regular sex with an HIV infected person. (extremely risky, not romantic &#8211; legal?)</p>
<p>6.That all consent to being experimented upon with a toxic drug. (extremely risky)</p>
<p>My question is this: Where will the researchers ever find thousands of test subjects with such a peculiar mix of conventional virtues and appetite for risky behaviour?</p>
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		<title>By: truthseeker</title>
		<link>http://www.scienceguardian.com/blog/massive-washington-drug-trial-meet-is-unanimous-hiv-nevirapine-ok-harpers-not.htm/comment-page-1#comment-129</link>
		<dc:creator>truthseeker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Mar 2006 01:20:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://paradigmoverthrow.com/blog/?p=190#comment-129</guid>
		<description>Special note:  The software has screwed up my post of 11.26 pm last night, so I insert it here for reference:Carry on talking reasonably like that Richard and I shall be half persuaded by what you say :-) There is something about anger at another viewpoint which devalues the speaker (how does that work?) and something about quiet resignation which catches us more persuasively, even though both may be saying exactly the same thing, ie the other point of view is trash.For one thing, I think you make the best point of all, the one  thing that seems to be a paradox for the HIV challengers (amid dozens that are problematical for the paradigm chamoions) and that is, as Jim Watson said to me, &quot;the drugs work, don&#039;t they?&quot;  You speak from your own experience with numbers of people.Although in principle all hands on individual experience can be dismissed scientifically as anecdotal, I hear enough people say time and time again that they have seen people get better on drugs with their own eyes, to feel that this is the chief difficulty that HIV critics have to surmount.  Even though, on balance, as I say, in my reading they have little else against them.Why are there so many reports that HAART drugs make people feel better, and seem to defeat ailments which were quite crippling before their use?  I believe they have four points to account for this, but I think it should be the subject of a separate post, since I want to quote your comment in it to display it better, if I may.As to them running amok in a fantasy of their own making, I believe that the core of the dispute focuses clearly on the inconsistencies which are claimed to support HIV, whatever you want to make of the Durban declaration, which in and of itself was an absurd and revealing statement of faith in answer to scientific objections, you must agree. Science is not a matter of counting votes, or of the number  declaring faith, but of reason applied to evidence.  Individuals with good minds have often been right in challenging conventional wisdowm, as Nobel prizes typically attest.  I find the easiest way to make friends with an accomplished scientist is to ask him or her what kind of trouble he or she had in the beginning with his or her new idea, which afterwards made their reputation.Given that you deal in both reaon and evidence and on that basis are the kind of scientific defender of the HIV ideology we respect - though your expertise seems to have you concentrating on the trees rather than seeing the wood, in my humble opinion - we are certain you will agree with that.But whether or not you agree that Duesberg is ahead of you in scientific expertise and study of every aspect of this problem - after all, who had greater incentive to do that study? - you have to admit that it implies something amiss if after twenty years he is able to point out the same gaps and inconsistencies as he was two decades ago.  And the possibility that he is a misguided crackpot is ruled out by his credentials, which have recently receieved a great boost from his much respected if not admired cancer work. For what its worth, he is obviously much brighter than his opponents on paper, which you can check for yourself, and in person, which you could probably check for yourself if you truly had a good point you wanted to check with him. I think you have to recognize that there is a problem here, and only review (which is all Harpers is asking) can resolve the biggest paradox, which is that the critique is live and well among large numbers of serious minds who have been given every incentive to stop objecting and change their minds.There is hardly any view which is more unpopular and suspect that this view that HIV is not the answer to what causes AIDS.  Every financial and social incentive has been applied for years to shut the view up.  There are many people like me who would be delighted if there was good reason to switch, which is part of the point I facetiously made in depicting the HIV PTN meet as having all the characteristics of a cult.I honestly think you have to face the possibility that like so many people your belief influenced what you experienced, rather than experience informed your belief.  At the very minimum this is one way that the inconsistency of our opposing beliefs in AIDS could be reconciled.Evidently the people at HIVPTN felt the same way when they urged me to &quot;come to Africa and see for yourself&quot;, but that  would also be explained by self deception, wouldn&#039;t it? On the other hand what cannot be explained by self deception is the long list of impossibilities that Duesberg listed in his Biosciences paper, which weigh in the balance very heavily against the one that the HIV challengers have to answer, though you seem to think they are all specious.The other thing that you have to explain to your own satisfaction is the attitudes of the top HIV enthusiasts who have seen fit all these years to avoid debate rather than happily engage in it, which is what decent scientists who genuinely believe that they have the right idea would normally do.Why couldn&#039;t Gallo reply to the Duesberg papers in the Proceedings, as he promised?  Why couldn&#039;t Montagnier write a reply to Dueberg in another venue as he promised?   Why did Maddox feel that Duesberg lost the right of reply in Nature? Why did Duesberg lose all support for his own research?  Why would no one support his funding to explore his objections to HIV, and now NCI will not fund his evidently very promising cancer ideas?  Why did a certain scientist invite Duesberg to the opera and produce from his coat pocket an announcement for Duesberg to sign to the effect that he was wrong after all?  Is any of that likely or necessary if you have the winning hand?Do you really smell only flowers, and not the rat?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Special note:  The software has screwed up my post of 11.26 pm last night, so I insert it here for reference:Carry on talking reasonably like that Richard and I shall be half persuaded by what you say <img src='http://www.scienceguardian.com/blog/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' />  There is something about anger at another viewpoint which devalues the speaker (how does that work?) and something about quiet resignation which catches us more persuasively, even though both may be saying exactly the same thing, ie the other point of view is trash.For one thing, I think you make the best point of all, the one  thing that seems to be a paradox for the HIV challengers (amid dozens that are problematical for the paradigm chamoions) and that is, as Jim Watson said to me, &#8220;the drugs work, don&#8217;t they?&#8221;  You speak from your own experience with numbers of people.Although in principle all hands on individual experience can be dismissed scientifically as anecdotal, I hear enough people say time and time again that they have seen people get better on drugs with their own eyes, to feel that this is the chief difficulty that HIV critics have to surmount.  Even though, on balance, as I say, in my reading they have little else against them.Why are there so many reports that HAART drugs make people feel better, and seem to defeat ailments which were quite crippling before their use?  I believe they have four points to account for this, but I think it should be the subject of a separate post, since I want to quote your comment in it to display it better, if I may.As to them running amok in a fantasy of their own making, I believe that the core of the dispute focuses clearly on the inconsistencies which are claimed to support HIV, whatever you want to make of the Durban declaration, which in and of itself was an absurd and revealing statement of faith in answer to scientific objections, you must agree. Science is not a matter of counting votes, or of the number  declaring faith, but of reason applied to evidence.  Individuals with good minds have often been right in challenging conventional wisdowm, as Nobel prizes typically attest.  I find the easiest way to make friends with an accomplished scientist is to ask him or her what kind of trouble he or she had in the beginning with his or her new idea, which afterwards made their reputation.Given that you deal in both reaon and evidence and on that basis are the kind of scientific defender of the HIV ideology we respect &#8211; though your expertise seems to have you concentrating on the trees rather than seeing the wood, in my humble opinion &#8211; we are certain you will agree with that.But whether or not you agree that Duesberg is ahead of you in scientific expertise and study of every aspect of this problem &#8211; after all, who had greater incentive to do that study? &#8211; you have to admit that it implies something amiss if after twenty years he is able to point out the same gaps and inconsistencies as he was two decades ago.  And the possibility that he is a misguided crackpot is ruled out by his credentials, which have recently receieved a great boost from his much respected if not admired cancer work. For what its worth, he is obviously much brighter than his opponents on paper, which you can check for yourself, and in person, which you could probably check for yourself if you truly had a good point you wanted to check with him. I think you have to recognize that there is a problem here, and only review (which is all Harpers is asking) can resolve the biggest paradox, which is that the critique is live and well among large numbers of serious minds who have been given every incentive to stop objecting and change their minds.There is hardly any view which is more unpopular and suspect that this view that HIV is not the answer to what causes AIDS.  Every financial and social incentive has been applied for years to shut the view up.  There are many people like me who would be delighted if there was good reason to switch, which is part of the point I facetiously made in depicting the HIV PTN meet as having all the characteristics of a cult.I honestly think you have to face the possibility that like so many people your belief influenced what you experienced, rather than experience informed your belief.  At the very minimum this is one way that the inconsistency of our opposing beliefs in AIDS could be reconciled.Evidently the people at HIVPTN felt the same way when they urged me to &#8220;come to Africa and see for yourself&#8221;, but that  would also be explained by self deception, wouldn&#8217;t it? On the other hand what cannot be explained by self deception is the long list of impossibilities that Duesberg listed in his Biosciences paper, which weigh in the balance very heavily against the one that the HIV challengers have to answer, though you seem to think they are all specious.The other thing that you have to explain to your own satisfaction is the attitudes of the top HIV enthusiasts who have seen fit all these years to avoid debate rather than happily engage in it, which is what decent scientists who genuinely believe that they have the right idea would normally do.Why couldn&#8217;t Gallo reply to the Duesberg papers in the Proceedings, as he promised?  Why couldn&#8217;t Montagnier write a reply to Dueberg in another venue as he promised?   Why did Maddox feel that Duesberg lost the right of reply in Nature? Why did Duesberg lose all support for his own research?  Why would no one support his funding to explore his objections to HIV, and now NCI will not fund his evidently very promising cancer ideas?  Why did a certain scientist invite Duesberg to the opera and produce from his coat pocket an announcement for Duesberg to sign to the effect that he was wrong after all?  Is any of that likely or necessary if you have the winning hand?Do you really smell only flowers, and not the rat?</p>
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		<title>By: truthseeker</title>
		<link>http://www.scienceguardian.com/blog/massive-washington-drug-trial-meet-is-unanimous-hiv-nevirapine-ok-harpers-not.htm/comment-page-1#comment-128</link>
		<dc:creator>truthseeker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Mar 2006 20:15:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://paradigmoverthrow.com/blog/?p=190#comment-128</guid>
		<description>No, I don&#039;t insist.

Sorry to say it, Richard, but clearly you do not respect the people and the material you are criticizing, including even your own, it seems, since you don&#039;t wish me to quote it, so how is it possible to continue an exchange with you which will be of interest to any onlooker? 

&quot;Total rubbish&quot; is simply not the kind of phrase to use about the points made by Peter Duesberg in the leading journals of science which have been vetted by senior peer reviewers unable to find factual flaws, let alone reject them as &quot;total rubbish&quot;, which they would have been only too glad to do if they could.

You seem by your own admission to know too little about the whole affair to make such dismissive remarks, since you do not even know whether Duesberg was a retrovirologist when Montagnier discovered HIV in patient blood. Not only was he aworking with retroviruses but he had achieved enough to be named California Scientist of the Year, soon (in 1986) to be admitted to the National Academy at a very young age, and be talked of as a candidate for the Nobel prize for his cancer work (letter in Nature). 

You don&#039;t seem to understand that you are dismissing out of hand one of the best scientists alive, one of the finest intellects of his scientific generation and one of the most accomplished even in the face of severe funding handicaps produced by the kind of prejudice you are showing.

I speak as someone who has interviewed for publication a large number of the most distinguished names in a variety of  scientific and other fields, so I am reasonably familiar with the prevailing standards.  I can assure you that any time you do not immediately understand Peter Duesberg&#039;s point you had best assume that it is valid, and you will discover it to be so when you do understand it.  

Of course his points are legitimate.  Even the two you quote indicate that you are not aware of how the debate has progressed. The kind of adjustments you refer to are the adjustments of those who cannot answer objections without shifting the goalposts, as they say.

If you don&#039;t respect the points made by those you think are wrong, or the people who make them, then your assertions will just reduce to insulting them, which is what has happened. You have to respect an argument to make an effective counter argument.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No, I don&#8217;t insist.</p>
<p>Sorry to say it, Richard, but clearly you do not respect the people and the material you are criticizing, including even your own, it seems, since you don&#8217;t wish me to quote it, so how is it possible to continue an exchange with you which will be of interest to any onlooker? </p>
<p>&#8220;Total rubbish&#8221; is simply not the kind of phrase to use about the points made by Peter Duesberg in the leading journals of science which have been vetted by senior peer reviewers unable to find factual flaws, let alone reject them as &#8220;total rubbish&#8221;, which they would have been only too glad to do if they could.</p>
<p>You seem by your own admission to know too little about the whole affair to make such dismissive remarks, since you do not even know whether Duesberg was a retrovirologist when Montagnier discovered HIV in patient blood. Not only was he aworking with retroviruses but he had achieved enough to be named California Scientist of the Year, soon (in 1986) to be admitted to the National Academy at a very young age, and be talked of as a candidate for the Nobel prize for his cancer work (letter in Nature). </p>
<p>You don&#8217;t seem to understand that you are dismissing out of hand one of the best scientists alive, one of the finest intellects of his scientific generation and one of the most accomplished even in the face of severe funding handicaps produced by the kind of prejudice you are showing.</p>
<p>I speak as someone who has interviewed for publication a large number of the most distinguished names in a variety of  scientific and other fields, so I am reasonably familiar with the prevailing standards.  I can assure you that any time you do not immediately understand Peter Duesberg&#8217;s point you had best assume that it is valid, and you will discover it to be so when you do understand it.  </p>
<p>Of course his points are legitimate.  Even the two you quote indicate that you are not aware of how the debate has progressed. The kind of adjustments you refer to are the adjustments of those who cannot answer objections without shifting the goalposts, as they say.</p>
<p>If you don&#8217;t respect the points made by those you think are wrong, or the people who make them, then your assertions will just reduce to insulting them, which is what has happened. You have to respect an argument to make an effective counter argument.</p>
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		<title>By: Richard Jefferys</title>
		<link>http://www.scienceguardian.com/blog/massive-washington-drug-trial-meet-is-unanimous-hiv-nevirapine-ok-harpers-not.htm/comment-page-1#comment-127</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard Jefferys</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Mar 2006 07:44:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://paradigmoverthrow.com/blog/?p=190#comment-127</guid>
		<description>&quot;As far as I know, they have only four points to account for this, and I think it should be the subject of a separate post, since I want to quote your comment in it to display it better, if I may.&quot;You may not, although I suppose if you insist I won&#039;t be able to do much about it. I was providing comments about your articles, not comments for inclusion in them. Your repeated return to the idea that Duesberg&#039;s points are legitimate suggests that this discussion is going to just go round and around. Let me have one more try at explaining what I mean: Duesberg&#039;s &quot;predictions&quot; are made up by...Peter Duesberg. Who decides cytopathicity is crucial to the &quot;HIV-AIDS hypothesis&quot;? Peter Duesberg. Who decides it should be esay to culture HIV from people with AIDS? Peter Duesberg. On and on. This all &quot;must&quot; be true for HIV to equal AIDS. I cannot stress enough that this is total rubbish. It is very easy to come up with specious predictions and then show they&#039;re not met; it is a parlor game, not science. This is why no one wants to publish his writings. Your question as to why Duesberg persists with it is an interesting one; I think he was a retrovirologist when the virus was first identified in humans, why would he want to insist that it does not cause disease in the face of the evidence? I have no idea, although I have some largely evidence-free suspicions as I think I already said.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;As far as I know, they have only four points to account for this, and I think it should be the subject of a separate post, since I want to quote your comment in it to display it better, if I may.&#8221;You may not, although I suppose if you insist I won&#8217;t be able to do much about it. I was providing comments about your articles, not comments for inclusion in them. Your repeated return to the idea that Duesberg&#8217;s points are legitimate suggests that this discussion is going to just go round and around. Let me have one more try at explaining what I mean: Duesberg&#8217;s &#8220;predictions&#8221; are made up by&#8230;Peter Duesberg. Who decides cytopathicity is crucial to the &#8220;HIV-AIDS hypothesis&#8221;? Peter Duesberg. Who decides it should be esay to culture HIV from people with AIDS? Peter Duesberg. On and on. This all &#8220;must&#8221; be true for HIV to equal AIDS. I cannot stress enough that this is total rubbish. It is very easy to come up with specious predictions and then show they&#8217;re not met; it is a parlor game, not science. This is why no one wants to publish his writings. Your question as to why Duesberg persists with it is an interesting one; I think he was a retrovirologist when the virus was first identified in humans, why would he want to insist that it does not cause disease in the face of the evidence? I have no idea, although I have some largely evidence-free suspicions as I think I already said.</p>
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